Den s.k. ”Dr Doom”, Nouriel Roubini som anses ha förutspått finanskrisen 2008 och blev hånad och utskrattad fick ju onekligen rätt. (Även om vissa kritiker hävdar att hans förutsägelser var ganska allmänna och icke tidsbundna så det var ganska stor chans att de skulle förverkligas förr eller senare). Han verkar inte vara mer optimistisk nu.
”Nästa år kan det bli en kollaps i eurozonen, en dubbelbottnad nedgång i USA, en hårdlandning både i Kina och på tillväxtmarknaderna och krig i Mellanöstern. ” (Sagt till Bloomberg, citerat i SvD 12/7 2012)
Ja. Eller så kan eurozonen återhämta sig i takt med att marknaderna ser att botten är nådd, USA-ekonomin börja vända uppåt efter valet när terrorbalansen mellan kongressen och presidenten mildras, samtidigt som risken för kriget som alla verkar vänta på i Mellanöstern minskar i takt med att demokratierna i regionen blir fler.
Att Kinas tillväxt avtar och ”bara” beräknas bli 7.5 % under andra kvartalet i år kan förresten vara bra för världen. Politiskt alltså. Den kinesiska totalitära fusionen mellan diktatur och kapitalism (statskapitalism) har börjat verka lockande för en del i tredje världen. Många ser dessutom Kina som en ny global supermakt som ökar sitt politiska inflytande i takt med de ekonomiska framgångarna. Det vore ju trevligt om de liberala demokratierna behåller huvudinitiativet och den västliga modellen förblir (åter blir) den huvudsakliga förebilden. Om den kinesiska modellen slutar leverera absurda tillväxttal kommer också kraven på förändringar inom Kina att växa. Sen vore en kraschlandning absolut inte bra men en kinesisk inbromsning skulle nog världen tjäna på politiskt. På lite sikt.
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